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Why do some autumns pop and others don't? An expert explains

Fall colors on campus
Kevin White/Missouri State University

Missouri State's Dr. William McClain said sunlight, stress and weather all shape foliage in the Ozarks.

Our biweekly program, Missouri State Journal, is a collaboration between KSMU Radio and Missouri State University. It's hosted and produced by Missouri State’s Office of Strategic Communication, and it airs Tuesday mornings at 9:45 on KSMU.

Today is September 1 — the beginning of the ‘ber months — aka September, October, November and December.

Though astronomical autumn isn’t for a few weeks, meteorological autumn kicks off on this day, and thoughts often turn to fall and leaf peeping.

What will the Ozarks autumn look like this year? Dr. William McClain, a forage agronomist and associate professor at Missouri State University explains the science behind the color change and give us his best predictions for the season.

“Typically, the initial trigger is the days start getting shorter and the nights start getting longer. But how vibrant the colors are is dependent on how well the plant did during that growing season,” he said. “So, if it photosynthesized a lot, fixed a lot of carbon, it's going to have the materials to be very vibrant.”

McClain said fall’s color change is entirely dependent on the year’s weather preceding the season, plus, what he calls stress events.

"If there’s a lot of stress or stressful events in that period of time, like drought, or this year we have the opposite of that. We have oxygen deprivation from too much flooding,” McClain said. “So, those are stresses that add up to, it could trigger the tree to go early, or it could just trigger the tree changes colors like normal, but it's a very short period of time before it drops its leaves.”

The Old Farmer’s Almanac puts peak southwest Missouri color around late October and into November.

What’s McClain’s prediction of this Ozarks’ autumn?

Listen to the full episode or read the full transcript.

Emily Letterman has worked at Missouri State University since 2023 and is currently the public relations strategist in the Office of Strategic Communication. A longtime journalist with over a decade of reporting on southwest Missouri, she has a bachelor’s degree in English literature from MSU.