The Missouri State University Political Science and Philosophy Department brought two speakers to Springfield this week to talk about the November Midterm Election.
The talk featured speakers from the right and the left. Matthew Continetti is director of domestic policy studies and the Patrick and Charlene Neel Chair in American Prosperity at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, one of the country’s foremost conservative think tanks, according to Political Science Department Head Gabriel Ondetti. Continetti also writes a column for The Washington Post. Dr. Bernard Fraga is the Ann and Michael Hankin distinguished professor of political science at Emory University in Atlanta and a wide published expert on voting behavior and voter turnout, especially among minority groups, Ondetti said.
On November 3, Democrats won control of both the U.S. House and the Senate and won gubernatorial races in Mississippi, Texas and South Carolina — states that had been governed by Republicans. They also broke the supermajority held by Republicans in Missouri.
Continetti said inflation was the overriding factor in Tuesday’s results.
"Three-quarters of the country rated, the country rated the economy not good or poor," he said. "That's the same that rated the economy not good or poor two years ago. Two years ago, they voted out the incumbent Democrats. This year, they voted...against the incumbent Republican."
He also blamed what he called the “six-year itch,” which he said in this case is a “ten-year itch.”
"And so, a decade of Trump means that the reaction to him is going to be a little bit more ferocious than even a normal six-year itch," he said.
But Continetti said, in exit polls, voters ranked corruption high on their list as factors most crucial to their vote. He said voters remembered everything they disliked about President Trump.
Fraga pointed to Trump telling voters to pretend he was on the ballot, which backfired.
"The best indicator of what happened is that people did pretend he was on the ballot, especially Democrats," he said. "And when they saw any Republican on the ballot, from governor to senator to U.S. House, but to state school superintendent all the way down they ballot, they saw Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump and said no, no, no, no, all the way down."
Fraga said he believes it wasn’t Democrats showing up in larger numbers that led to Tuesday’s victory for their party – it was Republicans switching their vote because of Trump, especially those who are weaker identifiers. And he said the Democrats’ victories were due to independents who had supported the president but didn’t this time. He said, it’s not a mandate for Democrats, it’s a referendum on Trump and his administration.
Continetti said the Democrats have a chance to define themselves over the next two years "in such a way where they are a little more left on politics but toward the center in culture. That would provide an avenue for them to maintain these majorities."
Trump will still be in power the next two years, he pointed out, and Congress's powers are going to be limited. The newly elected Democratic governors in previously red states will be the ones to watch, he said. "Do they act like they were billed or do they take a (Abigail) Spanberger route, govern more progressive than expected and see their approval decline?"
Fraga said Democrats need to focus on things that voters are concerned about like corruption and inflation, although with Trump still in power, he's not sure how much they'll be able to accomplish. "But, you know, focusing on the issues that the voters talked about, you know, being concerned, especially economically, right?" he said. "If the focus is instead on fighting with the president and having a way on social media, nothing gets done. The Democrats will be punished for that."
