When economists with the St. Louis office of the nation’s central bank visited the Ozarks last summer, they shared an optimistic vision of how Springfield’s $24 billion economy would fare through 2023. The big question then was whether the U.S. would slip into a post-pandemic recession and drag Springfield along with it.
That didn’t happen, says economist Kathleen Navin.
She told Ozarks Public Radio, “What we see more often now is that instead of the recession call, forecasters are looking for very subdued growth beginning later this year and into next year. And so it just keeps getting pushed back, as the data surprise to the upside."
The U.S. economy is more healthy than expected, despite inflation and spiking oil prices due to the Ukraine war. In the coming year, the nation is likely to grow at a rate between 1 to 1.8 percent.
Meanwhile, Springfield’s 10-county metro area can count some strong points. Nathan Jefferson is another economist with the St. Louis Fed, also known as the Eighth District.
“So looking at regional conditions, I think you’ll see that the Springfield area has had some stronger growth than the region as a whole," he told Ozarks Public Radio. "It’s really been a bright spot throughout the Eighth District.”
Springfield’s economy is growing faster than Missouri’s and the nation’s. Same goes for population growth — which is key for Springfield’s long-term prospects. The area’s big education and healthcare sectors mean that the local economy is more stable than elsewhere. And unemployment in metro Springfield is “really, really low,” around 2.6 percent.
Inflation is coming down but is still higher than the Fed would prefer. And the region faces other challenges. One big issue: There are still more job listings than job-seekers.
Jefferson said, “Labor markets, we’ve seen a little bit of easing, but it still remains a really tight labor market in Springfield, even more so than the rest of the [Eighth] District. And with regard to housing, we have seen prices continue to increase. Now that speaks to continued strong demand, even as mortgage rates have been rising. But I think that’s going to be one of kind of the key challenges for Springfield."
Jefferson and Navin swung by the Ozarks to speak to some 350 local business leaders at a luncheon sponsored by the Springfield Business Development Corporation. That’s an arm of the Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce.
