The Midwest Newsroom partnered with Emerson College Polling to conduct surveys of registered voters Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska between Sept. 26 and Oct. 2. The sample size was 1,000 persons in each state, with a margin of error of + or – 3% and a 95% confidence level.
GREGORY HOLMAN: Holly, welcome to KSMU News. It is such a pleasure to have one of our NPR partners on the broadcast today.
HOLLY EDGELL: Well, thank you for having me.
Q. So Holly, my first question is just to unpack this poll a little bit. One thing that surprised me when I first read it was how similar many of the results were across the four states that were surveyed. Can you talk about what is the goal of this poll — and how do we know these statistics are reliable?
A. Sure. So we wanted to do this poll with Emerson College Polling, because we know that this part of the country often gets overlooked when it comes to specific issues that are in the public discourse in our states — and nationwide, to be honest. And so what we wanted to do was focus on Iowa, Missouri, Kansas and Nebraska, and really ask questions specific to each state.
And so we really wanted to look at the issues. Some of them are on the ballot, some of them are not, and they're just things that keep coming up in controversial settings, on social media, on the news, in coffee shops.
And so we really wanted to look at that from the lens of these individual states. And we know this is a solid set of data because Emerson College Polling is a reputable, accredited polling offering center out of Emerson College. The sample size was good — 1,000 people in each state, which is pretty healthy — and the margin of error is similar to what you hear in a lot of polls, plus or minus 3%.
And they also use an interesting mix of information-gathering. They include [telephone] landlines, which we really liked because we know that there are a lot of people who still rely on landlines. They use cellular, cell phones to get data, direct messages, text messages, emails. So they really use a variety of tools to get this data. So that's why we really feel that we can trust what we have here.
We also only talk to registered voters, and so that was another way to kind of get people who really do think about voting to some degree.
Q. Now, one thing that also surprised me was that this is not a poll that includes survey questions about specific politicians. So we don't have mentions of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, or here in Missouri for our governor candidates, Republican Mike Kehoe or Democrat Crystal Quade. What we do have are issues, right? And so one of them that's covered in this poll is abortion access. That's been a tremendous issue here in Missouri, obviously, with the Supreme Court case two years ago. Missouri has a so-called trigger law that basically bans pretty much all abortions, only permitted in case of a medical emergency, with no exceptions for a pregnancy resulting from rape or incest. And I wonder if you can unpack a little bit, what does this poll tell us about the abortion debate here in Missouri and these other three states?
A. Well, it's really interesting, because what a common theme that we found in this poll is a sort of a disconnect between some of the stances that politicians who are running for office, as well as elected officials, have taken — and are really, you know, going to the mat to defend or promote.
The disconnect between those stances and positions and what voters may think, really. And so that was definitely — you asked about those common threads — that was definitely a common thread. And it was one of the issues that was in common was this issue of abortion.
And in Nebraska and Missouri, there are ballot measures on the docket, if you will, for abortion, for voters. And in Missouri, 56% of voters said that Missouri's current laws are "too strict," which is very interesting, because you'll hear politicians who are running as well as elected lawmakers, talk about what voters want, and that voters want to ban abortion under most cases. And this is again, Republicans and Democrats in this poll, and independents. So 56% of Missourians responded that they really think it's "too strict." And this has implications, because we do know there's a ballot measure coming on November 5 for Missourians to consider.
Q. Now I want to follow up on that, because this is a thing with surveys and polls, right? Does the abortion polling result for Missouri serve as a prediction for how that vote on Missouri Amendment 3 will turn out — or is it more of a snapshot of voter sentiment when the poll was conducted in late September/early October?
A. Sure. Well, as many election cycles have proven, predicting things off of polls is a tricky game. However, I think it's a significant number, and it could be cause for optimism, or concern — whatever side of the issue you're on.
But I think that the sense of this being a disconnect again, and this sort of margin being broad, because the next-biggest response section was "about right", which was 34% — and then only 10% said it was "not strict enough." And so that, really, to me, says, well, there's some interesting things to look for on November 5. And this is not a done deal by any means.
Q. So there were also, Holly, a couple of really interesting results about education in this Midwest Newsroom/Emerson College poll, and I wondered if you could talk about them. For example, in all four states — Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa and Kansas — at least 60% of those surveyed said they do not think a degree from a four-year college is worth the cost. There was another polling result that shows 56% of Missouri registered voters would oppose state laws that would ban books from school classrooms and libraries. Can you kind of unpack — again, I keep saying "unpack" — but what do we think is going on here?
A. Again, I think it speaks to that, that kind of what people really live on the ground, versus what's happening in, you know, offices on campus, among experts, pundits who talk on cable news. We know that college costs are going up. We know that people are going into heavy, heavy debt, and not always realizing a return on that investment when they get the job of their dreams, even.
And so I think that we're seeing a reconsideration, perhaps among many people, about that investment, like — is, is my best investment in a four-year college degree when I may not make that big salary afterwards? Or is my best investment in something else? And that something else has been discussed. You know, vocational school, community college, apprenticeship-types of programs. And so I think this is a big red flag to me, for our big state universities, for example, for our smaller — we have some great smaller private colleges. We've seen some closures already in those colleges, paired with the fact that there is an enrollment cliff coming that has to do with demographics.
And so I think that, you know, colleges and universities should be maybe concerned that, paired with the fact that there's going to be fewer freshmen coming in, in coming years, and the fact that people don't really know whether they want to invest anymore that huge amount in a loan, or, you know, parents taking money out of savings, or what-have-you — that college costs may not be the thing that people think is such a great investment.
As regards the book bans, there are several states, not not our states yet, but several states that have put into effect legislation and policies around what libraries and schools can do — anywhere from where books are shelved to in the library or the or the school — to the actual books themselves that cannot be included. We have seen it more in our region, on the school district level, on the library district level, and it's, it's a cause of contention.
But, you know, as we've been saying, this is an issue that I think a lot of high-profile groups, advocates and lawmakers will will stand tough on and say, "This is what the voters want." Whereas we're seeing that — maybe, not so much. You know, maybe the nuance that we see is that people think it might be a bridge too far.
Q. It seems like it shows that voters are really caring about their First Amendment freedoms, and that families and students are being really thoughtful about what their best moves are. Now, Holly, my last question is just, what else would you want listeners of Ozarks Public Radio to know about this poll?
A. I think that you probably sensed a theme in my conversation, that voters know that life is complicated, and that the reality on the ground is very different than what our elected officials and those running for office may have us believe. I think that this is the beauty of the democratic system. In the end, people will decide based on a whole bunch of factors, and that politicians cannot rely on being the loudest or the most strident to get that, get their point across.
And one thing that is on the poll — that all [four] states reflected in this — is that people decided that elected officials in their states were mostly influenced by their [own] best interests, not of the interest of the people. That was over 50% in Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska. People said that politicians are mostly interested in their own interests.
So again, very savvy, somewhat cynical, sadly, but I think that this is also a theme that voters are going to surprise people sometimes. We've seen that in the past, especially in our [Midwest] states, where pundits and so forth tend to lump us together as sort of a monolith of belief and and persuasion, and we know that that is not true, so I think that's what I want people to take away.
That in a democracy, things are messy and complicated, and these polls help us to see that very much through a local sort of filter, if you will, a local — if you want to call our region close to home — local, state. We really value that we got these results for our states.
Q. If you're just joining us, we've been chatting with Holly Edgell. She is managing editor of the Midwest Newsroom. That's a collaboration between NPR and some of the public radio stations in Missouri, Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska.
The Midwest Newsroom recently released a very detailed poll about what's on the minds of registered voters in those four states. We'll have a link to that full polling report on our website, ksmu.org, where you can learn more.
Holly, we're so grateful for spending time with you today.
A. It was a pleasure.
Find the complete poll of 4,000 registered voters in Missouri, Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska at this link.
