If there were a contest for which party's voters possess the most enthusiasm right now, Democrats would arguably be winning.
Take for instance University City resident Mary Neal: She said that she's enthused about Democratic candidates roughly a year from the 2026 election cycle — especially after the party romped to victory in off-year elections earlier this month.
"They're awesome. I'm just so excited about '26," Neal said. "I think it's going to be a great election."
On the surface, there's not much for Missouri Democrats like Neal to be enthusiastic about in 2026. The state doesn't have a high-profile statewide race, such as for governor or U.S. Senate, just an auditor's contest in which even Democrats would concede that incumbent GOP Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick is the early favorite. Republicans will still hold large majorities in the General Assembly and almost certainly will prevail in the majority of the state's congressional districts.
But that doesn't mean nothing is happening in Missouri that could showcase whether Democrats or Republicans are riding high nationally.
Many of those national barometers involve contests that most Missouri political observers would overlook in election years with more statewide contests. That includes the race for Congresswoman Ann Wagner's 2nd District seat in the St. Louis area.
Democrats ramp up in the 2nd District
Thus far, several Democratic candidates are running to take on Wagner, including Wildwood resident and podcaster Fred Wellman. His campaign hosted a well-attended event at the Kirkwood Performing Arts Center where he received the vigorous backing of key Democratic political figures, including Jill Schupp, a former state senator and 2nd District candidate.
Even the most optimistic Democrat would concede that defeating Wagner in the district that encompasses parts of St. Louis, St. Charles and Warren counties and all of Franklin County will not be an easy task. The Ballwin Republican easily won reelection against Democrat Ray Hartmann last year, even besting the former "Donnybrook" regular in heavily Democratic St. Louis County. And under a new congressional map passed earlier this year that is currently being litigated, the 2nd District gets even more Republican leaning.
But national Democrats have, at least for now, targeted the district — something that Wellman said makes sense given dissatisfaction with the economy and with the GOP-controlled Congress. He added that if Democrats in Missouri are going to emulate Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger or New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill, they'll have to work for it.
"They went out constantly. They hustled," Wellman said. "And there's a hustle factor that goes into this, and I think that's a big part of it. You run everywhere and you hustle everywhere, and that makes a big difference."
Democrats flipping the 2nd District after years of futility would without question showcase a national blue wave. Even Democrats keeping it close – like they did in 2018 and 2020 — could be a sign that the 2026 election is going well nationally.
"We're hearing again and again that there's great frustration at the lack of representation we're seeing in Washington, D.C., and I think it bodes very well for us," Wellman added.
Ballot items a major Democratic test
But Democrats will have to do more than just obtain moral victories as a benchmark of success in 2026.
They'll have to defeat a Republican-backed measure that would make it harder for citizens to put initiatives on the ballot — and one that would overturn much of a 2024 constitutional amendment that protects abortion rights.
Both of those GOP-supported measures are expected to have vigorous and well-funded opposition campaigns. State Rep. Mark Boyko of Kirkwood says that if Missourians preserve the initiative petition process and constitutional protections for abortion rights, it probably means Republicans are not having a great election elsewhere.
"What we saw this last session was Republicans committed to overturning what not only was in the best interest of Missourians, but also the clearly stated preference of Missourians across a wide variety of issues," Boyko said.
At the same time, an effort known as the Respect MO Voters proposal could be another midterm benchmark to watch.
This effort would severely restrict the legislature's ability to undo measures voters have already approved. Organizers say they've already gathered nearly 100,000 signatures, which may show dissatisfaction with how Republicans repealed voter-approved paid sick time and sought to dismantle the 2024 abortion-rights measure.
Bethany Mann, who is running for the 3rd Congressional District seat as a Democrat, said the legislature's push to overturn voter-approved ballot items could backfire.
"And what happens is you keep bumping into situations where people are voting for people in good faith because there's a R or a D behind their name," Mann said. "Then they're becoming disenfranchised and unhappy with the level of service commitment that these elected officials are showing to the people who they have represented."
State House races are another barometer
Aside from the 2nd Congressional District race, General Assembly contests could also provide signs of national Democratic strength or weakness. Democrats are expected to vigorously contest state Senate seats in Springfield and the Kansas City area.
But another key barometer could be a slew of state House contests in St. Louis County. Even though voters in that part of the state easily backed the abortion rights initiative, they also reelected Republican state lawmakers in 2024 who openly opposed that plan. This was deeply frustrating for Democrats — who saw it as clear evidence that progressive ballot measures do not necessarily create coattails for their candidates.
Some Democrats are banking on 2026 being different. Claire Henrich, for instance, is running in Missouri's 110th District, which includes parts of Wildwood and Clarkson Valley, areas that have voted for Republicans for generations.
She contends the national enthusiasm for Democrats is trickling down to her bid to flip the seat, adding that people in her district "are feeling forgotten and left behind."
"I could definitely see that changing over time, and I think some of it is the ways in which people in those areas have been let down by their government," Henrich said.
It's not just St. Louis County House races that could showcase an uptick in Democratic fortunes.
Amy Thompson is running once again for a House seat in Franklin County. She only got 28% of the vote in 2024, a steep decline from a couple of decades ago when Democrats either won seats in the county or at least held Republicans below 60% of the vote.
Thompson knows she's the underdog. But she said eventually lowering the margins of GOP candidates is part of the slow process of rebuilding the state Democratic Party.
"I think once we break that hold that they have on the people, and we start going out to let people know Democrats are there again, we'll be able to … have real contests again that we haven't seen lately," Thompson said.
'That's no bull'
Perhaps Frank Barnitz knows the value of competing in places where Democrats aren't expecting to win.
Barnitz is a cattle producer and former Missouri state legislator. In 2005, Barnitz shocked a lot of people in the Missouri political world by capturing a fairly GOP-leaning Senate seat that encompassed places like Phelps and Dent counties. He won a full term in 2006 with some memorable television ads, including one where he appeared with a giant cowboy hat and declared, "I'm Frank Barnitz and that's no bull."
But Barnitz's state Senate victory opened up his state House seat. And in a special election, a Republican attorney named Jason Smith prevailed — the first step in his political journey that led him to winning the southeast Missouri-based 8th Congressional District seat. Smith is now the chairman of the powerful U.S. House Ways and Means Committee.
Barnitz says he doesn't regret the political dominoes that followed, but he believes voters in the 8th District who backed candidates like Smith and Trump are not happy, especially as Trump's tariffs have injected instability into some agriculture markets. He said he's seriously considering running against Smith next year, joining a couple of other Democrats who are angling to take on the Salem Republican.
"I mean, is he in a powerful position? Absolutely," Barnitz said. "Is he a powerful decision maker? I don't believe that. I believe that he's been given a position for the purpose of answering to the upper part of the Republican control because he sits in what has been a very safe seat."
Barnitz is not naive to think it would be easy to beat Smith, whose campaign did not return a request for comment. Smith has regularly received over 70% of the — even though parts of southeast Missouri have historical Democratic leanings. Even when Democrats have run candidates like Barnitz who opposed abortion rights and gun control, they're still linked to the national Democratic Party, which is much more liberal on social issues.
But if Barnitz would be able to lower Smith's margin of victory, it could show that Missouri is following places like rural Virginia in voting much less enthusiastically for Republicans.
"Have you become better off today than you were yesterday, under a different control?" Barnitz asked. "Well, I'd say in most cases, no, they haven't been. And we're trying to give them that new look to be able to say: 'OK, let's give this guy a try.'"
Tempering expectations
A year is an eternity in politics, and it's probably not wise to assume that just because Democrats did well in November 2025 that they'll romp to victory in November 2026.
And Missouri is much more Republican-leaning than the states that just had high-stakes elections, such as New Jersey, Virginia and California.
Even if Republicans have a rough midterm election cycle, U.S. Sen. Eric Schmitt said GOP officials shouldn't overreact.
"The Republican Party now … is more of a working class party," Schmitt said. "It's a broad-based political party, which means there's more lower propensity voters in the party. So unlike before, when I was growing up in Missouri, Republicans perform better in presidential years than they do in midterms, and that's a challenge long term. I'd rather have that problem than the other side of it."
Democrats living in Republican-dominant parts of the state say they're cautious about just how much voters are willing to move against GOP candidates. They include Farmington resident Cindy Giddens, who said that "Missouri has some hard work ahead" even if Democratic enthusiasm is high.
"I think Trump still has a really strong base here," Gidden said. "Forty percent of the people didn't even vote in the last election here – we're losing polling places on top of that. Most of the people I spoke with said they 'don't know/do politics.' Sadly, I believe it's because they are exhausted from working just to survive."
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