Last year’s main takeaway was that the Ozarks — and the nation as a whole — managed to avoid a recession. That’s despite many shock factors associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath: Shortages of workers. High inflation and housing costs. Snarled supply chains.
This year, Ozarks Public Radio caught up with St. Louis Federal Reserve economist Charles Gascon before he gave his speech. In 150 words, here’s Gascon's take on metro Springfield’s economic fortunes:
“Through the first part of this year, the economy's performed more or less in line with expectations. Inflation pressures are moderating, so I think that’s a welcome development for a lot of households and families. Labor market conditions are still pretty healthy, so the economy's still adding jobs. Although job growth is slowing, and as a result of that, we’re seeing an uptick in the unemployment rate just, just a little bit.
"Within this region, overall the regional economy continues to outperform the state, and in many ways the national averages. You can attribute a chunk of that to just healthy population growth in the region, and people migrating in from the broader Midwest and other areas of the state. And that’s keeping demand for services, and housing, and new construction projects, demand for healthcare services all really strong — and that’s continuing to lead to pretty healthy gains in employment.”
Gascon’s talk came the same day as the federal government announced inflation fell below 3 percent last month — for the first time since 2021. Two years ago, inflation topped 9 percent.
Gascon also said that families and businesses’ expectations for price increases are falling back toward historic norms. The Fed’s goal is to keep price increases to about 2 percent per year, making it easier for companies and families to make financial planning decisions.
As far as jobs go, Gascon said the supply of workers is getting closer to lining up with demand for their labor, locally and across the nation.
"They’re not laying off workers because they see demand slowing or any of that," he said. "They’re really in a position where they’re saying, ‘We've got a good employment base.’ They're looking for ways to kind of get more productivity out of their workers, investing in new technologies as a way to kind of expand their business. With employment realistically constrained just due to overall slower labor force growth.”
Even so, Gascon said American businesses face a gap of about 1 million more jobs than available workers, on a base of about 170 million U.S. people active in the workforce.
